UAE-India airfares surge as back-to-school rush hits travel costs

Back-to-school rush drives up UAE-India airfares

With schools in the UAE set to reopen later this month, families returning from summer holidays are facing some of the highest airfares of the season on routes from India. This has prompted many travelers to rethink how they book their journeys home. Instead of flying on the most popular dates, many are returning earlier or later, choosing connecting flights, flying into different Gulf airports or even buying one-way tickets in the hope that fares would fall closer to departure. Travel agents say demand remains concentrated on essential travel, while geopolitical uncertainty, rising fuel prices and reduced airline capacity continue to keep fares elevated.

Travelers adjust strategies to cut costs

Many families, especially the low/middle income groups, are adjusting their return dates to coincide with lower-demand periods. Returning a few days earlier or later helps them to get a cheaper rate than returning during the peak period. Searching for an indirect carrier or travelling back through a different airport in the Gulf also helps to get a comparatively better rate. One-way tickets have become a common trend, with travelers purchasing them in the expectation that fares would come down at the last moment and the geopolitical situation would improve.

Leisure travel declines amid rising costs and uncertainty

For many travel agencies, leisure bookings have slowed sharply as families prioritize essential trips. Ipshita Sharma of SCN Travel & More said enquiries for holidays have reduced considerably. “Bare essential travel is happening. I have no enquiries for fun travel. Everybody is just going home and coming back. Leisure travel is almost nil.” She said travelers are being hit by a combination of high fares and uncertainty. “Just as things were settling down, the fresh noises have started. And the rumour mills are churning, which doesn’t help.” In some cases, flights now cost more than the holiday itself.

High fuel prices and AI-driven pricing add to pressure

Travel experts say the back-to-school rush is coinciding with higher airline costs globally. Jet fuel prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the International Air Transport Association’s Jet Fuel Monitor showing the global average jet fuel price climbed to $158.77 per barrel for the week ending July 31. While it fell 0.8 per cent compared to the previous week, it has risen 76.4 per cent compared to last year. Several airlines worldwide have also warned of mounting fuel costs, while aviation analysts say carriers continue to face higher labour, maintenance and operating expenses.

• One-way Economy fares in the last weeks of August, which is when UAE schools reopen after the summer, are in the Dh1,200 (from Mumbai) to Dh3,705 (Kochi) ranges.
• In comparison, off-peak fares are sometimes available for anything between Dh350 to Dh650.
• According to a recent Bloomberg report, the technology is helping airlines capture more revenue on busy routes while reducing the number of discounted seats available.

Travellers are becoming more flexible with dates and open to less common routes. Alena Iakina, founder of visarun.ai, said residents are still traveling but are changing how they book. She said almost 90 per cent of the company’s bookings this month have been for Saudi Arabia, alongside a smaller number of trips to Australia, the UK and the US. “We haven’t seen a single Schengen booking in a few weeks. That really surprised us.” According to Iakina, travelers are avoiding some destinations because of ongoing uncertainty. “We believe so, although it’s also connected to higher costs. People are avoiding some routes and choosing destinations that feel safer at the moment.” She expects fares to remain high during the first half of August before easing once the busiest travel period passes.